Joint electromagnetic and gravitational wave inference of binary neutron star merger GW170817 using forward-modeling ejecta predictions

M. Ristic, R. O'Shaughnessy, K. Wagner, C. J. Fontes, C. L. Fryer, O. Korobkin, M. Mumpower, R. T. Wollaeger

Unpublished submitted (2025)

We reassess the capacity for multimessenger inference of AT2017gfo/GW170817 using both kilonova and gravitational wave emission within the context of a recent simulation-based surrogate model for kilonova emission. Independent of the inclusion of gravitational wave observations, comparisons between observations that incorporate our kilonova model favor a narrow range of ejecta properties, even when allowing for a wide range of systematic uncertainties in our modeling approach. Conversely, we find that astrophysical conclusions about the neutron star itself, including its mass and radius, depend strongly on assumptions about how much material is ejected from the neutron star. Looking forward, our analysis highlights the importance of systematic uncertainty in general, the need for better modeling of neutron star merger mass ejection from first principles, and warns against uncontextualized applications of ejecta predictions using fits to numerical relativity simulations.